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05/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The imposing starting rotation which Seattle Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik dreamt up this offseason is nearly in place.
Former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, acquired in an offseason trade from Philadelphia, made his long-awaited debut on Friday, tossing seven shutout innings against the Texas Rangers, striking out eight. Lee, who went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in five postseason starts for the Phillies a year ago, is now fully recovered from an abdominal injury.
Also last week, Erik Bedard threw a 55-pitch bullpen session devoid of any setbacks and could soon be ready to begin a rehab assignment. Bedard had season-ending surgery to repair a torn labrum last summer. The Mariners are hopeful Bedard can return to form after posting a 2.82 ERA in 15 starts last year before being shut down. The team is still playing it safe, targeting the end of May for his return
"He looks better than before," manager Don Wakamatsu told the team's Website.
Considering Bedard allowed two or fewer runs in 13 of his 15 starts last season, that's quite a statement.
"It looks like his arm is a little freer, and he's not putting as much stress on it," Wakamatsu continued. "We're pretty excited about that, and we think he is, too. It's one thing to get him back. The second part is to try to keep him from the injuries recurring."
Of course, Seattle still has Felix Hernandez atop the rotation. King Felix allowed five runs in Saturday's 6-3 loss to Texas, breaking a remarkable string of 18 consecutive quality starts (six innings or more, three earned runs or less) dating back to May of last season.
Doug Fister (2-1, 1.29) has shined thus far in his first full season. On Sunday, he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning against Texas and went on to allow just three hits in eight innings. However, the M's lost the game, 3-1, which has been the running theme on the young season. They also spoiled Lee's masterpiece in a 2-0 setback to the Rangers on Friday.
Even without Lee and Bedard for the season's first month, the M's starters still rank second in the American League with a 3.23 combined ERA, behind only Tampa Bay (2.64). Where those two teams differ, however, is in the win-loss column, as the Rays' starters have gone 14-3, while Seattle's starting staff is just 6-7.
Obviously, Seattle's offense has left much to be desired. Only two players are hitting above .250. Situational hitting has been virtually nonexistent. The team went 3-for-15 with runners in scoring position during Saturday's 6-3 loss to Texas. Also, the Mariners have a Major League-worst nine home runs on the season, a total which is matched by five individual players across the league. Chicago's Paul Konerko has 12. Then again, maybe that shouldn't come as a surprise when the heart of the order is comprised of Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Lopez and Milton Bradley
In an interview with local reporters over the weekend, Wakamatsu said he has kicked around several potential changes with the lineup, but any help from outside the organization is ultimately up to Zduriencik.
"I think you're going to constantly look," Wakamatsu told the Seattle Times. "The way we're playing right now, we're (two games) out. If that increases, then we're going to look to do something else."
RANGERS SHAKE OFF ADVERSITY, LEAPFROG TO TOP OF AL WEST STANDINGS
Entering play today, only two games separate the first-place Texas Rangers (13-12) and the last-place Seattle Mariners (11-14) in the AL West pecking order.
Thanks to a three-game sweep of the Mariners over the weekend, Texas is now the pace-setter in the division standings. In sweeping that series, the Rangers were able to overcome seven shutout innings against Mariners' starter Cliff Lee on Friday, and eight shutout frames against Doug Fister on Sunday. All told, the Rangers have now won five of their last six, which is quite an accomplishment when you consider some of the injuries the team has had to deal with.
All-Star second baseman Ian Kinsler was activated from the disabled list on Friday after missing the first month of the season with a high ankle sprain. In his place, Joaquin Arias hit .321.
All-Star right fielder Nelson Cruz, who is hitting .323 with a team-high seven homers and 17 RBI, was placed on the DL last week with a strained right hamstring. He is expected to be out until mid-May. No worries there, as his replacement, David Murphy drove in the game-tying run in the 9th inning and the game-winning run in the 11th of Sunday's dramatic victory.
And with that, the Rangers have sent a strong message that they don't plan on bowing out when the chips are down.
ANGELS' STARTERS EYEING CONSISTENCY
Considering how tight things are in the AL West standings, it's still too early for Angels' manager Mike Scioscia to worry about his starting rotation. The starters are 9-12 with a combined 4.96 ERA, which ranks fourth-worst in the AL. The only consistent one of the bunch has been Jered Weaver (3-1, 3.19). The rest of the rotation, not so good.
Ervin Santana (1-2, 4.59), Joel Pineiro (2-3, 5.76), Joe Saunders (1-4, 5.74) and Scott Kazmir (2-1, 5.57) have all struggled to get going to this point. However, Scioscia feels it's only a matter of time before things get turned around.
"We haven't seen the level of consistency we want or expect, but that doesn't change our evaluation of what we have," Scioscia told the team's website. "We have good arms down there with really good talent. I feel confident that we will see the rotation more in line with what we saw at the end of last year, when we were really going well."
With the team headed to Boston for Game No. 4 of its 10-game road trip, sooner or later Scioscia will need to start seeing some returns from his starting rotation, which was billed as one of the team's biggest strengths heading into the season.
TIME TO WORRY ABOUT SHEETS?
When Oakland general manager Billy Beane made a play for Ben Sheets in the offseason, the hope was that he'd be getting the starting pitcher who more closely resembled a four-time All-Star, and not the one whose career has been sidetracked by injuries.
But after leaving in the fourth inning of Sunday's start against Toronto, Beane is still waiting for the former version of his new ace to show up. In just 3 1/3 innings, Sheets was charged with nine earned runs on 10 hits against the Blue Jays. He hadn't given up nine runs in a start since August 2005. He also allowed eight extra-base hits, which is believed to be an Oakland record, according to The Oakland Tribune.
Sheets' latest start followed up another ugly outing in Tampa Bay last Tuesday, in which he allowed eight runs on nine hits in just four innings of work. His ERA now stands at 7.12, not what Beane and the front office had in mind.
"My location is terrible," Sheets said after Sunday's meltdown. "You can't throw the ball in the middle of the plate in the big leagues. I don't think I could throw a ball that's not in the middle of the plate to a Little Leaguer right now. They hit the ball hard. Their outs were hard. Everything was hard.
"I wouldn't say my location's been this bad ever since my rookie year. I think if you've got stuff, you can (overcome poor location) a little more. My stuff's not bad, but it's not unbelievable either."
When you're paying someone $10 million to be a 'stopper,' that's certainly not an encouraging sound bite, particularly with the team just wrapping up a 1-5 road trip.
<< Red Stars grab first win of season
Cambridge, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Red Stars claimed their first win
of the season on Saturday at Harvard Stadium as Casey Nogueira and Cristiane
scored second-half goals in a 2-0 win over the Boston Breakers.
Following a score
<< Diamondbacks recall Valdez to start against Astros
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Arizona Diamondbacks recalled right-hander
Cesar Valdez from Triple-A Reno to make his major league debut in Monday's
series opener at Houston.
The 25-year-old Valdez went 1-1 with a 3.80 earned run a
<< NBA Playoff Preview - Orlando vs. Atlanta
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The well-rested Orlando Magic finally will get back to
work on defending their Eastern Conference championship when they kick off the
second round of the postseason against their division rival, the Atlanta
Hawks.
The se
<< Northeastern signs Coen to extension
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Northeastern men's basketball coach Bill Coen
has signed a multi-year contract extension.
Coen has guided the Huskies to a record of 66-62 during his four-year tenure,
which includes postseason appearances
British Amateur champ Manassero turns pro >>
Turin, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Italy's Matteo Manassero, who became the
youngest British Amateur champion ever last year, turned professional on
Monday in time to make his pro debut at the BMW Italian Open.
After being the you
Capps earns monthly closer honor >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Washington Nationals closer Matt Capps has
been selected as the Major League Baseball Delivery Man of the Month for
April.
Capps finished the first month of the season with 10 saves in as ma
Van Nistelrooy could be left out by Dutch >>
Amsterdam, Netherlands (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hamburg striker Ruud van Nistelrooy
looks set to miss this summer's World Cup in South Africa after being left out
the Netherlands' 26-man training squad for the tournament.
The 33-year-old former
Benayoun unsure over Liverpool future >>
Liverpool, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Liverpool midfielder Yossi Benayoun is
unsure whether he will still be at Anfield next season.
The Israel international has been a popular figure on Merseyside following his
transfer from West Ham an
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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JUPITER, Fla. -- The Foorida Marlins are preparing for the likelihood that right-hander
Josh Johnson won't be ready when the season starts April 2.
Grapefruit League action starts Wednesday, but Johnson, penciled in as the No. 2 starter, hasn't even thrown off a mound at full speed since September. He's experienced some soreness in his right forearm.
MySportsbook.com have the Marlins listed with baseball betting lines at +800 to win the NL East this season .
''You guys know the math. If he's not on the hill then he becomes an opening day roster issue,'' manager Fredi Gonzalez said Saturday. ''We're borderline now.''
Johnson, who finished 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 2007, was supposed to throw on flat ground Saturday. That was canceled when he woke up with pain.
He played catch on Wednesday with no pain but felt discomfort in a throwing session on Thursday. He's expected to try again Sunday.
''Like we always said from the very beginning, we're going to take it easy on him,'' Gonzalez said. ''He didn't feel right, so we shut him down. We're going to take it back to step one and see where we're at.''
Among the candidates to take Johnson's spot in the rotation are left-hander Chris George and right-handers Yusmeiro Petit and Jose Garcia.
Right-hander Sergio Mitre, who missed most of last season with arm and shoulder problems, also is behind.
With Johnson's status doubtful, Gonzalez said right-hander Ricky Nolasco will stay in the rotation and no longer will be considered a candidate for closer.
Additional basbeall odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
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