Division leaders square off in Cincinnati

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of National League divisional front-runners get together for a potential playoff preview tonight when the Central-leading Cincinnati Reds host the East-leading Atlanta Braves in the first of three at Great American Ball Park.

The Reds hold a half-game edge on the St. Louis Cardinals in the Central after taking two of three games from Milwaukee in a series that ended with a 10-2 Reds win on Wednesday.

The Braves, meanwhile, are 2 1/2 games up on the streaking Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia has cut into the lead with an eight-game win streak while the Braves have dropped four of six, including a series finale to Washington Thursday.

Cincinnati sends emerging ace Johnny Cueto to the mound in the opener in search of fifth straight win and with a chance to equal his career high in victories. The third-year Dominican export improved to 10-2 on the season with eight innings of scoreless four-hit ball in a 7-0 defeat of Houston on July 24.

The triumph lowered his earned run average to 3.18 and marked his sixth straight unbeaten start since a 1-0 loss at Seattle on June 18. His opposition batting average this season - .247 - is 12 points below his career clip and 15 points better than the .262 average he allowed last season.

For the Braves, right-hander Kris Medlen makes his second straight start after a trip to the bullpen and seeks his first win since July 7. A 24-year-old Californian, Medlen tossed six innings and allowed five runs on eight hits while getting a no-decision in Atlanta's 10-5 win at Florida on July 24.

It was his first game-opening assignment after four straight trips from the bullpen, during which he allowed six hits and four runs across five innings between July 11 and 21.

The former 10th round draft pick - 2006 - is 4-1 in 15 road games this season with a 4.05 ERA in 53 1/3 innings.

He has never faced the Reds.

On Thursday, Ian Desmond and Adam Dunn each homered, as the Nationals edged the Braves, 5-3, in the rubber match of a three-game series.

Derek Lowe (10-9) took the loss after allowing four runs on five hits in five innings. Matt Diaz hit a two-run homer for the Braves.

On Wednesday, Brandon Phillips hit his fourth career grand slam while Joey Votto went 3-for-5 with a home run, powering the Reds to a 10-2 victory over Milwaukee.

Phillips, who had two hits, slugged his first grand slam since 2007. Miguel Cairo went 2-for-4 with a walk and two RBI for the Reds, who went 4-2 on their road trip.

Cincinnati scored its runs in bursts, plating five in the sixth and eighth innings. Rookie Travis Wood (1-1) benefited from the first surge, getting his first major league win after allowing two runs in five innings. He gave up five hits, walked one and struck out six.

Atlanta swept a two-game set from the Reds earlier in the year after the Reds won six of the nine matchups in 2009.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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