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03/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Without their head coach patrolling the sidelines, the Denver Nuggets will start up a four-game road trip tonight against a Minnesota Timberwolves team hoping to end a string of six straight losses when it takes the Target Center court.
The Nuggets enter this late-season trek, which also includes stops in New Orleans, Memphis and Houston, with George Karl remaining in Denver to undergo treatment for neck and throat cancer. The accomplished head coach hopes to be back behind the bench when the Nuggets visit the Hornets on Friday.
Denver will also be without leading rebounder Kenyon Martin due to a bout with tendinitis in his left knee. The former No. 1 overall pick has sat out the team's last two contests with the condition, but the Nuggets didn't seem to miss a step in either game, backing up a 122-114 home victory over Indiana on Friday with Sunday's 118-106 decision over Portland at the Pepsi Center.
Carmelo Anthony led the way with 30 points against the Blazers and J.R. Smith added 22 for Denver, which shot a sizzling 58.9 percent from the field to cap a perfect three-game homestand. Chauncey Billups contributed 21 points to the winning effort.
"To beat a team like [Portland] with basically having an 8-to-10 point lead most of the night is a great win for us," said Karl afterward.
The win kept the Nuggets at the top of the Northwest Division, with Utah lurking just one game off the pace in second place. Denver also trails Southwest leader Dallas by only one game for the No. 2 playoff seed in the Western Conference.
Denver will also likely be without rookie point guard Ty Lawson for a fifth straight outing because of a bruised left shoulder, while assistant coach Adrian Dantley is expected to take over Karl's duties for tonight's tilt.
The Nuggets may not need their full complement of players to handle the lowly Timberwolves, who occupy the basement of the West with a 14-50 record and extended their current slide with Monday's 125-112 setback to Dallas.
"Too many turnovers against a great team like that," said Minnesota's Al Jefferson in reference to his club's 26 giveaways. "They feed off turnovers."
Jefferson was one bright spot for the Timberwolves, with the standout forward racking up 36 points on 15-of-21 shooting while pulling down 13 rebounds. He had sat out Minnesota's previous two games due to a suspension for a recent DUI arrest.
The Timberwolves continue a four-game homestand that began with Saturday's 112-98 loss to Houston. Minnesota has lost its last six tests as the host and is just 9-23 at the Target Center this season.
Denver has won 11 of the last 12 meetings between these teams, including two of three matchups held this season, and is 5-0 over its last five trips to Minneapolis.
<< Montana and Weber State duke it out for Big Sky title
Ogden, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A trip to the NCAA Tournament is on the line
tonight, as the Weber State Wildcats and the Montana Grizzlies do battle in
the championship game of the 35th annual Big Sky Conference Tournament at the
Dee Events Cente
<< Hoyas and Bulls collide in Big East Tourney
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Big East Tournament continues today, as
the ninth-seeded South Florida Bulldogs tussle with the 22nd-ranked and
eighth-seeded Georgetown Hoyas in second-round action at Madison Square
Garden. The winner of th
<< Robert Morris battles Quinnipiac for NEC crown
Hamden, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-seeded Quinnipiac Bobcats and the
second-seeded Robert Morris Colonials are set to collide in the championship
game of the 2010 Northeast Conference Tournament, and the winner will receive
an automatic bid
<< Time is now to eliminate head shots in hockey
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A concussion is serious, and the NHL may
finally be waking up to the fact. Anyone who has had a serious knock will tell
you that the effects can be scary. While the league has spent years dancing
around the s
Raptors make a stop in Sacramento >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The reeling Toronto Raptors aim to right the ship tonight
as they resume a four-game western road trip against the Sacramento Kings.
The Raptors are now fighting for their playoff lives after dropping the opener
of thei
Devils return home for battle with rival Rangers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Three straight road games out west following the Olympic
break seemed to have caught up with the Devils in their most recent contest.
New Jersey now returns home for the first time in nearly a month this evening
when it pl
Mavs aim to push win streak to 13 vs. Nets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NBA's worst team takes on its hottest when the New
Jersey Nets meet the Dallas Mavericks in Big D tonight.
Despite playing short-handed the Mavs earned their 12th straight victory on
Monday in Minneapolis whe
Columbus ties Toluca in Champions League >>
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Columbus Crew earned a hard-fought 2-2
draw with Mexican power Toluca in the first leg of their CONCACAF Champions
League quarterfinal series in Columbus on Tuesday night.
Steven Lenhart scored tw
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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